Bitcoin reclaimed the $114,000 level on Monday, bouncing back from last week’s losses and reigniting hopes of a push toward $120,000.
However, with nearly $900 million exiting the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and long-term whales selling 3.4 million BTC in the past week, traders are asking whether this rebound has enough fuel to last.
On-chain data from Glassnode showed that 90% of the coins moved last week were sold at a profit, marking the third round of profit-taking in this cycle.
This trend suggests the market could be heading for a cooling phase, even as short-term momentum remains intact.
3 Major Events Could Decide BTC’s Next Move
This week, three major events are set to influence bitcoin’s next move.
First is the joint roundtable on digital asset regulation, hosted by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodities Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC) in Washington, D.C.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins will open the session on Monday, featuring leaders from ICE-NYSE, Nasdaq, CME Group, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citadel.
The discussions aim to provide greater clarity on listings, exchange oversight, and regulatory frameworks, a development the market has been eagerly awaiting.
Second, investors are watching the looming U.S. government shutdown. Without congressional action, agency funding expires on October 1, 2025, threatening federal furloughs and disrupted services.
Historically, BTC has struggled when risk aversion spikes, meaning prolonged uncertainty could weigh on prices.
Third, fresh insights from the U.S. job market could steer investor sentiment. The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the JOLTS job openings survey on Tuesday and the nonfarm payroll report on Friday.
Any weakness in labour data could push capital into safer assets like gold and government bonds, potentially dampening BTC’s and other risk assets’ rally.
U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fuels Optimism
One source of confidence for BTC is growing optimism around the earlier announced U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Recall that President Donald Trump established a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile earlier this year. It was also confirmed that the reserve would include Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA) and XRP (XRP).
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, has suggested that the Trump administration is working on budget-neutral strategies to acquire BTC.
While speculation also emerged about revaluing the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has dismissed the idea, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Still, the broader push for strategic Bitcoin holdings offers psychological support for prices, reinforcing the view that BTC could stay resilient even in volatile conditions.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Path to $120K or Dip?
In the short term, BTC’s price outlook depends on several key drivers, including clearer regulatory signals expected from the upcoming SEC-CFTC roundtable, the possibility of a deal to prevent a U.S. government shutdown, and labour market data that, if softer, could support risk assets.
Added to this is growing confidence that the U.S. may begin adding BTC to its reserves, which could provide psychological support for the market.
If these catalysts align, BTC could have the momentum to climb toward $120,000. However, if ETF outflows and whale profit-taking continue, BTC may struggle to extend its gains.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading above $114K. The coming week’s events will decide whether this is just a relief bounce or the beginning of BTC’s next leg higher.
