Bitcoin’s Q4 performance in 2025 is shaping up to be its weakest since 2018, with the asset down more than 22% in the past 60 days as year-end approaches.
Specifically, market data shows the sharp decline has disrupted a quarter that has historically delivered some of bitcoin’s strongest gains, raising fresh questions about what 2026 could bring.
According to data from Coinglass, bitcoin has fallen 22.54% in Q4 2025, with only days remaining before the quarter ends. The last time BTC posted a comparable fourth-quarter loss was in 2018, when prices dropped by over 42% during the peak of the bear market.
The weak performance stands out because the fourth quarter has traditionally been one of Bitcoin’s most bullish periods. Since 2013, Q4 has produced positive returns in most years, with average gains above 77% and a median return close to 48%. Losses during this period have been relatively rare.
Bitcoin Q4 Performance Turns After October Peak
Bitcoin’s downturn accelerated after reaching a record high of $126,080 in October 2025, based on CoinGecko data. Since that peak, BTC has declined by more than 30%, trading near $87,593 at the time of writing.
The sustained drop has significantly affected investor sentiment and spilled over into the broader crypto market.
Notably, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen by more than $1 trillion, sliding from above $4.1 trillion earlier in the year to around $3.04 trillion at press time.
This decline underscores Bitcoin’s continued influence on the wider digital asset market. As BTC corrected sharply, altcoins and related assets followed, amplifying losses across the sector.
Q4 2025 now joins a small group of years where Bitcoin ended the final quarter in negative territory. The underperformance has caught many traders off guard, as year-end periods are typically associated with renewed inflows and improved market confidence.
Read also: Binance Founder Says Bitcoin Could Hit $1M this cycle, Projects Crypto Market Cap to Reach $5T
What Bitcoin’s History Suggests for 2026
Historical cycles provide mixed signals on what could happen next. After Bitcoin’s steep Q4 decline in 2018, the market stabilized in early 2019 before posting strong gains later in the year.
A similar recovery pattern followed the Q4 2022 downturn, which was succeeded by a sharp rebound in Q1 2023.
However, recoveries have not always been immediate. In early 2019, BTC continued to struggle before launching a broader rally months later. As 2026 approaches, analysts see two likely scenarios.
On the one hand, the bitcoin price could stage a relief rally in Q1, consistent with previous post-Q4 recoveries. On the other hand, selling pressure may persist into early 2026 before a stronger rebound develops later in the year.
While short-term uncertainty remains elevated, historical trends suggest that extended bitcoin downturns have often laid the foundation for significant upside once sentiment begins to improve.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2030: Ark Invest Raises Bull-Case Target to $2.4 Million
