The much-anticipated altcoin season is finally here, but according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, it’s different from what the market is used to.
Traditionally, altcoin season begins when capital flows from Bitcoin (BTC) into alternative cryptocurrencies, leading to a decline in BTC’s market dominance. However, Ju argues that this time, trading volume is the key indicator, not bitcoin dominance.
Stablecoin Holders Drive Altcoin Surge
In a statement on X (formerly Twitter), Ju revealed that altcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEXs) is now 2.7 times that of Bitcoin, signaling a major shift in market activity.
He stated: “Alt season has begun. No direct BTC-to-alt rotation, but stablecoin holders are favoring alts. Alt volume is 2.7x BTC. BTC Dominance no longer defines alt season—trading volume does.”
This suggests that stablecoin holders rather than Bitcoin investors are now the primary force behind the latest altcoin rally.
Mixed Signals from the Altcoin Season Index
Despite Ju’s claims, the Coinmarketcap Altcoin Season Index tells a different story. This index determines whether the market is in Bitcoin or altcoin season by analyzing the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the last 90 days. If 75% or more of these altcoins outperform Bitcoin, it is officially altcoin season.
At the time of writing, the index stands at 33, meaning the market is still in Bitcoin season. This contradicts earlier expectations, as the index briefly surged to 64 in December 2024, sparking hopes of an incoming altcoin boom.
However, since the beginning of 2025, the index has struggled to gain momentum, dropping to its current level.
Market Saturation Delayed Altcoin Season
One reason for the delayed altcoin season could be the explosion of new tokens entering the market. CoinGecko co-founder Bobby Ong pointed out that over 600,000 tokens were launched in January 2025 alone, significantly diluting liquidity across a growing number of assets. With investors constantly shifting between new tokens, many established altcoins struggled to gain traction.
Despite this, Ju insists that altcoin season is finally here but with a twist. He described it as a “very selective alt season”, meaning only certain high-quality projects are seeing increased interest. He also urged investors to do their research (DYOR) before jumping in.
